FACT CHECK: OBAMA CAUGHT LYING ABOUT GUN CONTROL STATS

President Obama in several recent speeches has made the claim that "40 percent of all gun purchases take place without a background check." Well Mr.President, you've been caught again in a lie. 

From the Washington Post Fact Checker:

Obama’s continued use of the claim that 40 percent of gun sales lack background checks

Why wouldn’t we want to close the loophole that allows as many as 40 percent of all gun purchases to take place without a background check?”

— President Obama, remarks on gun safety, March 28, 2013

“FACT: Nearly 40% of all gun sales don't require a background check under current law. #DemandAction”

— tweet from @BarackObama, March 28

We were away last week and have been catching up on the recent rhetoric. A number of readers asked us about this comment last week by President Obama, and his Twitter account (managed by his campaign spin-off Organizing for Action), given that we had looked closely at this statistic back in January, in two columns, and found it wanting. It ultimately earned a rating of Two Pinocchios. PolitiFact in January also concluded there were serious problems with this particular statistic, giving it a rating of “half true.”

Normally we would expect some adjustment of the language in response to a fact-checker consensus. Alas, it appears to be time for a refresher course — and a new rating.

The Facts

There are two key problems with the president’s use of this statistic: The numbers are about two decades old, yet he acts as if they are fresh, and he refers to “purchases” or “sales” when in fact the original report concerned “gun acquisitions” and “transactions.” Those are much broader categories of data.

As we noted before, the White House said the figure comes from a 1997 Institute of Justice report, written by Philip Cook of Duke University and Jens Ludwig of the University of Chicago.

This study was based on data collected from a survey in 1994, the same year that the Brady Act requirements for background checks came into effect. In fact, the questions concerned purchases in 1993 and 1994, and the Brady Act went into effect in early 1994 — meaning that some, if not many, of the guns were bought in a pre-Brady environment.

Digging deeper, we found that the survey sample was just 251 people. (The survey was done by telephone, using a random-digit-dial method, with a response rate of 50 percent.) With this sample size, the 95 percent confidence interval will be plus or minus six percentage points.

Moreover, when asked whether the respondent bought from a licensed firearms dealer, the possible answers included “probably was/think so” and “probably not,” leaving open the possibility the purchaser was mistaken. (The “probably not” answers were counted as “no.”)

When all of the “yes” and “probably was” answers were added together, that left 35.7 percent of respondents indicating they did not receive the gun from a licensed firearms dealer. Rounding up gets you to 40 percent, although as we noted before, the survey sample is so small it could also be rounded down to 30 percent.

Moreover, when gifts, inheritances and prizes are added in, then the number shrinks to 26.4 percent. (The survey showed that nearly 23.8 percent of the people surveyed obtained their gun either as a gift or inherited it, and about half of them believed a licensed firearms dealer was the source.)

Cook and Ludwig, in a lengthier 1996 study of the data for the Police Foundation, acknowledged the ambiguity in the answers but gave their best estimate as a range of 30 to 40 percent for transactions in the “off-the-books” secondary market. (The shorter 1997 study cited by the White House does not give a range but instead says “approximately 60 percent of gun acquisitions” involved a licensed dealer.)

Meanwhile, note the phrasing in the original report — “acquisitions” and “transactions,” which included trades, gifts and the like. But Obama spoke of “gun purchases,” and his tweet referred to “gun sales.”

Why is it important to make a distinction between purchases and transactions? For one thing, the Senate bill that would expand background checks — supported by the White House — specifically makes an exception for “a bona fide gift between immediate family members, including spouses, parents, children, siblings” as well as “the death of another person for whom the unlicensed transferor is an executor or administrator of an estate or a trustee of a trust created in a will.” As noted above, such transactions can change the results.

The Police Foundation report did not break out gun purchases, so in January we asked Ludwig to rerun the data, just looking at guns purchased in the secondary market. The result, depending on the definition, was 14 percent to 22 percent. That's at least half the percentage repeatedly cited by Obama. (In a recent article for National Review, Cook and Ludwig wrote “we don’t know the current percentage — nor does anyone else.” But they say if the percentage is lower it actually strengthens the case for expanding background checks because it would be less expensive to implement.)

Since our initial report on this statistic appeared, The Washington Post in February included a question on background checks on a survey of Maryland residents, asking whether they went through a background check during a gun purchase in the past 10 years. The result? Twenty-one percent say they did not.

Coincidentally or not, 21 percent falls within the 14-to-22 percent range for gun purchases without background checks in the 1994 survey. (Note: Because so few Marylanders buy guns, there is a large potential margin of error with this result.)

A White House spokesman declined to comment on why the president keeps using the “up to 40 percent” statistic.

The Pinocchio Test

When we first looked at this issue, we noted that congressional foes of gun control had made it difficult for the federal government to conduct research on guns. But, as shown by the Washington Post survey of Maryland gun buyers, there is nothing stopping private pollsters from producing a more up-to-date survey.

In the meantime, we have documented that (a) the survey numbers are about two decades old, so they include purchases that predate any background checks; (b) the survey sample is rather small; and (c) the results are significantly different when adjusted for “purchases” or “sales” — the phrasing used by the president.

Two months ago, we were willing to cut the White House some slack, given the paucity of recent data. But the president’s failure to acknowledge the significant questions about these old data, or his slippery phrasing, leaves us little choice but to downgrade this claim to Three Pinocchios.

Former astronaut Mark Kelly shits, steps in it.

A smart move on the part of the store owner. Kelly gets outed for buying an "assault rifle," then spins a story that he intended all along to give the weapon to Tuscon PD and show how easy it is to buy an "assault rifle." Had the store delivered the rifle to Kelly, now knowing he intended to give it directly to another party, they would have left themselves open to a happy visit from BATFE and Homeland Security. 

BATFE needs to have a little "sit-down" with Mr. Kelly and discuss the answer Kelly provided on the BATFE Form 4473, Question 11a, which Kelly signed as being "true and correct," but on which he obviously lied. Making false statements on a BATFE 4473 is punishable as a felony offense under federal law. A straw purchase is a straw purchase, regardless of who you plan on giving the firearm to. 

Gun store rescinds Mark Kelly's rifle purchase, questions his 'intent'

A Tucson gun store owner has decided to rescind the sale of a military-style rifle to Mark Kelly, the husband of former U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, after Kelly said he had intended the purchase to make a political point about how easy it is to obtain the kind of firearms he's lobbying Congress to ban.

Kelly's March 5 purchase of an AR-15-style rifle and a 45.-caliber handgun at Diamondback Police Supply sparked a frenzy of reaction from both sides of the debate after he posted to Facebook a photo of himself shopping.

A background check took only a matter of minutes to complete, Kelly said in the Facebook post, adding that it's scary to think people can buy similar guns without background checks at gun shows or on the Internet.

But Kelly couldn't immediately take possession of the rifle because the shop had bought it from a customer. As a result, the store is required by a Tucson ordinance to hold the gun for 20 days to give the city enough time to make sure the weapon wasn't used in a crime.

Store owner Doug MacKinlay said Monday in a Facebook post of his ow that he "determined that was in my company's best interest to terminate this transaction prior to his returning to my store."

"While I support and respect Mark Kelly's 2nd Amendment rights to purchase, possess, and use firearms in a safe and responsible manner, his recent statements to the media made it clear that his intent in purchasing the Sig Sauer M400 5.56mm rifle from us was for reasons other then for his personal use," MacKinlay said in the statement.

He added that the store will return Kelly's money, donate the rifle to the Arizona Tactical Officers Association to be raffled as a fundraiser and make an additional contribution of $1,295 -- the value of the rifle -- to the Eddie Eagle GunSafe Program.

Kelly's purchase of the guns sparked accusations of hypocrisy from gun-rights supporters, with many on Facebook focusing on his motivations and the rules for purchasing such guns. Kelly, a former astronaut, said he intended to eventually hand in the rifle to Tucson police but planned to keep the handgun.

Kelly and Giffords started a gun control advocacy group, Americans for Responsible Solutions, amid the wave of recent mass shootings. They have been touring the country in recent months in support of expanded background checks for gun purchases.

Kelly bought the guns at a Tucson shop the day before he appeared with his wife at the supermarket where she was wounded during a shooting rampage that left six dead and 12 others injured two years ago. Giffords resigned from Congress last year as she continues to recover from her injuries.

Anti-gun activists protest 7 Cricuit Court Concealed Carry ruling.

And the turnout was stupendous.

ANTI-CONCEALED CARRY RALLY IN CHICAGO

PRO-CONCEALED CARRY RALLY IN SPRINGFIELD

There was a time when astronauts were worthy of respect.

Gabby Gifford's husband, former astronaut Mark Kelly, recently purchased an AR-15 rifle and "high-capacity" magazines. Upon learning the media was aware of the purchase, Kelly announced he was turning the rifle over to the Tuscon Police. He made no mention of the high-capacity mags or the .45 pistol he also bought at the same time.

This is what Kelly posted on his Facebook page when the news leaked:

Looks like the judiciary committee will vote on background checks next week. I just had a background check a few days ago when I went to my local gun store to buy a 45. As I was leaving, I noticed a used AR-15. Bought that too. Even to buy an assault weapon, the background check only takes a matter of minutes. I don't have possession yet but I'll be turning it over to the Tucson PD when I do. Scary to think of people buying guns like these without a background check at a gun show or the Internet. We really need to close the gun show and private seller loop hole.

Hypocrisy? Publicity stunt? Caught in a lie? Well Mark, if not, what then? 

"Self-defense is not an option" "They'll just have to kill me"

At the 1:06 mark the stupidest woman in the world (sporting an Obama cap) expresses herself: "Self-defense is not an option." Then when asked, what if someone is trying to kill you? Her response: "they'll just have to kill me." Unbelievable.

Cause of death: Simple-minded, self-righteous disregard for her own safety.

Joe Biden: "you want to keep someone away from your house, just fire the shotgun through the door"

Don't bother asking who's on the other side. "just fire the shotgun through the door." 

Idiot.

from the Sandy Hook shooter's home: Police have recovered a “trove” of violent video games from the basement of Lanza’s home. Sources say Lanza spent countless hours there alone, in a private gaming room with blacked-out windows.

Hours spent on violent video games. An admiration of Norway spree shooter Anders Behring Breivik. Anger management issues. Behavioral "episodes". Social interaction problems. Asperger's Syndrome. Autism.

WTF was his mother thinking by keeping any type of weapon in the home, let alone four different firearms and ammunition, with this obvious mentally defective child living there. And taking him to the gun range to teach him to operate the weapons? Leaving him home alone so he could become more independent? 

Mom is clearly guilty of gross negligence. But she's dead, a victim of her own stupidity and denial. Nancy Lanza spawned something broken and unable to operate within society's norm, and then ignored the problem. Nancy Lanza is the guilty party here. 

Hours of violent video games + obvious mental defects + a mother in denial:

Arlington, Massachusetts is infinitely safer today.

A most brilliant piece of police work uncovered these deadly items at the scene of a drunk-driving crash. 

• Police seized what they said were “six thirty-round machine gun ammunition magazines” from Laidman’s vehicle and one 9 millimeter fifteen-round magazine that was labeled “law enforcement and government use only.” (It's also a crime in Massachusetts to remove the label from your pillow that reads do-not-remove-this-label-under-penalty-of-law)

• Arlington Police Captain Robert Flynn said the magazines are tan (DON'T LOOK DIRECTLY AT IT! TAN IS THE MOST DANGEROUS OF ALL THE SHADES OF BROWN) ) and appear to for a machine gun (Capt Flynn is clearly unsophisticated in the area of firearms identification), but no rifle (OR AMMUNITION) was found in the vehicle. He said police also found a military uniform (HOLY CRAP, CAMMIES IN THE TRUNK!) in the trunk of Laidman’s car and are looking into whether Laidman has served in the military.

Arlington, MA establishes a new benchmark for deadly weapons bust. The patches in the photo are a nice detail. Nice work fellas, I'm sure everyone there is so proud. In today's panic-buy market that's about $500 worth of "ammunition feeding devices." Maybe Capt. Flynn can sell them and throw the department a swell party at Chuck E. Cheese's.

Leave it to the Mexicans to show Arlington, MA what a real weapons bust looks like:

Isn't this the truth.

S.150.IS Feinstein "Assault Weapon Ban"

TEXT of Bill S.150.IS Diane Feinstein Assault Weapon Ban

She wants your guns. All of them. 

Chicago homicide numbers out of control, Rahm demands any and all action be taken including reclassification of "homicide" to "natural causes"

It's a true story about a 25 yr old doper who got beaten to death (blunt force trauma to the head) by her father. Originally classified by officers on the scene as a homicide, the Medical Examiner would later reclassify the cause of death as "natural causes."

This directly from Second City Cop blog:

• Loses consciousness after a beating at the hands of her father, dies on scene with paramedics present, classified as a homicide. But a bloody January weekend and a desperate need to keep homicides under 40 results in the highlighted line in picture #1:

• ME ruled death NATURAL - Pulmonary Embolism, victim was struck in head by father who is in custody.

• Any doctors want to let the readers know if a beating with documented head trauma might be enough to cause or loosen existing blood clots that might lead to a pulmonary embolism - and death?

• We imagine that this one is going to disappear down the memory hole in short order. See that unchecked box at the top left the first photo? "Confidential Incident." Expect that to be changed before 9 AM this morning and expect an order to be cut that ALL homicides, death investigations and similar incidents will be checked as "confidential" until such time as our political and department masters deem it worthy of being observed by the masses.

• Hey Zekman? (fyi: CBS investigative reporter in Chicago) How about instead of picking on coppers going through a tedious process, you look at the manipulation of numbers - you know, like when you used to be an actual reporter. All the numbers Pammy, because you know no one is going to care about a dead black dope head. Maybe you can get Jesse involved to see why Rahman-Noodle and McCompStat are downgrading a case where the only casualty is a dead minority woman.

There's some serious panic at City Hall and CPD HQ. Last year's homicide number went past 500 in the last few day of the 2012, and now even though we're in the midst of a cold wintry season murder numbers are off to a scorching start, already well above last years rate. Chicago's violence "problem" has become national news, much to the embarrassment of Rahm and his former boss and Chicago homeboy Obama. Meanwhile, Rahm is pushing for even more restrictive gun legislation (doesn't Illinois/Chicago already have the most oppressive gun legislation in the nation?) and his Superintendent of Police seems only able to announce weekly tactical changes and manipulate the numbers as best he can.

Mayor McSmirk's Dopey Deputy is in trouble. This is the same idiot who has said he will encourage Chicago cops to shoot legally armed citizens:

The "Reverend" Al Sharpton wants your guns.

He also wants you to believe Tawana Brawley was raped 25 years ago by then County Prosecutor Steven Pagones and a gang of white men, some of them Police officers. Yeah... you remember that story, don't you.

Sharpton made his career on racial hatred and telling big-big lies in the media. Tawana Brawley, found guilty of lying and defamation, attempted to disappear and elude justice. 25 years later she has been found living under a false identity and served with a court order to settle her debt with Pagones. 

You can run but you can't hid from the lies you've told and the damage you caused:

The "reverend" looks like he's lost a few pounds since he last saw Tawana. Looks to me like she found everything he lost and then some. 

RuPaul tops Piers Morgan in TV ratings.

Apparently, an irrelevant old colonialist wailing about the American Bill of Rights like a spoiled teenage girl isn't what people turn on the television to see. Even liberals. They've got a new boss over at CNN, we'll see how long he lets this turd wallow before he flushes him back to the UK.

BATFE: Stupid is as stupid does.

these guys couldn't find their own asses with both hands and an ass map:

ATF's Milwaukee sting operation marred by mistakes, failures

• "When the 10-month operation was shut down after the burglary, agents and Milwaukee police officers who participated in the sting cleared out the store but left behind a sensitive document that listed names, vehicles and phone numbers of undercover agents."

• "And the agency remains locked in a battle with the building's owner, who says he is owed about $15,000 because of utility bills, holes in the walls, broken doors and damage from an overflowing toilet."

• "The operation ran into more trouble in October, when burglars broke into the building housing Fearless and cleaned out the ATF operation."

• "The lease states that the alarm is included in the rent. But shortly after Fearless moved in, Salkin said he told the people running the store he was cutting the phone line, which connected the alarm. He said he assumed they would hook up their own alarm. They did not."

• "As the gun and drug buys continued, the operation went awry. In September, an agent parked his Ford Explorer at the Alterra on N. Humboldt Blvd., about a half mile away, with three ATF guns stored in a metal box in the back."

• "About 3 p.m. Sept. 13, an Alterra employee spotted three men breaking into the Explorer. They stole three guns: a Smith & Wesson 9mm handgun, a Sig Sauer .40-caliber pistol and an M-4 .223-caliber fully automatic rifle. They also made off with ammunition and an ATF radio, according to a police report. It does not appear from the reports that the agent was at Alterra at the time of the break-in."

• "But during the roundup, ATF arrested and sought charges against three defendants who proved to be the wrong people, even though they had video of the defendants."

• "One of those was Adrienne Jones. ATF agents said Jones sold them six grams of marijuana on March 7. Problem was, Jones reported to a federal prison in Pennsylvania to start a sentence on March 1, according to Chris Burke, spokesman for the federal Bureau of Prisons - on an ATF case."

• "Other cases reveal that the agency's operation was paying such high prices that some defendants bought guns from stores such as Gander Mountain and sold them to the agents for a quick profit. The mistakes by agents are troubling and suggest a lack of planning and oversight, according to veterans of the ATF"

• "The ATF has run storefront stings in other cities, holding news conferences trumpeting results and showing off the guns and drugs seized. In Milwaukee, the operation has been kept quiet...."

And there's good reason to believe the rumors that a similar BATFE operation working out of NW Indiana that targeted Chicago has also seen its own share of ineptitude. Idiots.

Listen to your pal Joe Biden, he knows what's best.

Joe Biden Recommends Buying A Shotgun When An Earthquake Strikes

• In a Google+ Hangout centered around gun control, Vice President Joe Biden went off on a strange tangent on shotguns, assault rifles, and protecting yourself during an earthquake against other people (or, zombies?).

• "A shotgun would keep you a lot safer – a double barrel shotgun – than the assault weapon in somebody's hand who doesn't know how to use it, even one who does know how to use it. You know. *Points to the camera*

• It's harder to use an assault weapon to hit something than it is a shotgun. So, if you want to keep people away in an earthquake, buy some shotgun shells."

"Harder to use an assault weapon to hit something..." What the fuck? Jesus H Christ, Joe Biden is an idiot.

Oh and BTW, "zombies" is just code for African Americans. What, you didn't know that? Some funny guy in Hollywood thought that one up years ago.